Russia is back. Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and intervention in Eastern Ukraine and Syria; deployment of military contractors and advisors in Venezuela, Africa, and elsewhere, development of new hypersonic weapons; and growing military cooperation with China have refocused Western attention on understanding the nature of Russian military power. But how should we understand it? Since 2014, a steady stream of analysis has produced contradictory narratives.Is Russia merely an opportunist, or is it a foresighted planner that is steps ahead of the United States in strategic theaters from Africa to Latin America? Does Russia pose a critical threat to U.S. interests across the world, or is it a power in decline, punching above its fading economic weight?
InUnderstanding the Russian Military Today, afive-day, professional development program, participants explored all the elements of Russian military power: its composition and prospects, its social and historical foundations, its doctrine, and current operations. Through interactive seminars and hands-on simulation exercises,think tank analysts, academics, security specialists, and government officials came together to develop new interdisciplinary analyses and approaches.As a final exercise, participants were tasked with developing short, independent research papers that explored one of four major themes: Russian society, strategy, and history; elements of Russian military power; recent uses of Russian military power; and resources behind Russian military power. CSIS is pleased to present their work below. The papers are a testament to knowledge gained throughout the course, yet each stands on its own as knowledge added to a growing community of Russian military and security experts.
This publication was funded by the Russia Strategic Initiative, U.S. European Command in Stuttgart, Germany. The opinions, conclusions, or recommendations contained herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies or endorsem*nts, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. government.
Participant Papers
2021 Participants
Are Current Russian Expeditionary Capabilities Capable of a Coup de Main in Sweden?
September 30, 2021|Suzanne Freeman
This paper analyzes the prospects for Russia to achieve a coup de main in Sweden with its current expeditionary capabilities.
The Russian and Ukrainian Spring 2021 War Scare
September 21, 2021|Mykola Bielieskov
This paper analyzes Russia's military buildup near Ukraine's borders in spring 2021, Kremlin's motivations for moving troops and equipment, and the results of the war scare.
Russia’s “Hybrid Aggression” against Georgia: The Use of Local and External Tools
September 21, 2021|Natia Seskuria
This paper explores Russia’s use of local and external tools in its "hybrid aggression" against Georgia.
Russia and the Technological Race in an Era of Great Power Competition
September 14, 2021|Dominik P. Jankowski
This paper argues that Kremlin views technological innovation as a capability of a great power, which will not only help the leadership achieve its strategic goals but also allow the regime to increase control over Russian society.
Strengthening Russia’s Nuclear Forces in the Arctic: The Case of the Kinzhal Missile
September 14, 2021|Jyri Lavikainen
This report explores the role of Russia's new capability, the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal nuclear-capable air-launched ballistic missile, in Russia’s military forces in the Arctic.
2020 Participants
Russia’s Weaponization of Tradition: The Case of the Orthodox Church in Montenegro
September 25, 2020|Mira Milosevich
To understand the nature of Russian malign influence in Montenegro, it is necessary to examine the objectives of Russian foreign policy in the country as well as Russia's use of the Orthodox Church as an instrument of its soft power.
Not So Private Military and Security Companies
September 25, 2020|Yuval Weber
Wagner Group is Russia’s best-known private military company, appearing in conflict zones all over the world. This paper explains how the Wagner Group fits into Russia’s great power competition strategy while remaining beneath the threshold of catalyzing overt, large-scale military conflict.
Why Europe Matters: The Case for an Arms Control Negotiation Campaign
September 25, 2020|Arvid Bell
The global arms control architecture is crumbling. While this trend is often framed as a U.S.-Russia problem, the potential expiration of the New START in February also severely affects European security. This paper argues the European Union should play a more effective role in influencing U.S.-Russia arms control negotiations.
Russia’s Recent Military Buildup in Central Asia
September 25, 2020|Kinga Szálkai
Russia’s current military buildup taking place in Central Asia where the Russian military is already the dominant force begs the question, why is Russia enhancing its military presence in a region it already dominates—particularly at a time of global economic downturn?
The Diversity of Russia’s Military Power
September 25, 2020|Mark F. Cancian, Cyrus Newlin
This volume is comprised of the work by CSIS executive education program participants on Russian strategy and history, as well as the elements and resources behind Russian military power.
Giving Voice to the Strategic Corporal
September 24, 2020|Matt Bazeley
The U.S. military needs to communicate—it has an important message to get out in order to compete against dynamical adversaries. This paper argues strategic corporals must be empowered to give the United States the capacity and volume needed to compete with Russia.
An Enduring Relationship – From Russia, With Love
September 24, 2020|Alison Brown
Russian president Vladimir Putin has staked his claim in Venezuela across the diplomatic, military, and economic spectrum. If the United States does not fully understand how Russia’s relationship with Venezuela will pose enduring challenges, it may cede ground in shaping Venezuela's future.
Pandemic and Protests: Key Drivers of Russia’s Increased Threat Perception
September 24, 2020|Kelsey King
The year 2020 has ruined many people’s plans but none more so than Vladimir Putin’s. This paper explores how the pandemic and protests have elevated Russia’s threat perception in ways that the United States and Europe must understand to avoid a costly confrontation.
Next-Generation Fighters
September 23, 2020|Hannah Alberts
In July 2020, the Federal Assembly approved amendments to Russia's education law, which stipulated that institutions should form in students “a sense of patriotism and civic consciousness." This paper explores the trend toward the militarization of Russia’s youth.
Defusing Lenin’s Time Bomb
September 23, 2020|Travis Frederick
In 2016, Vladimir Putin claimed that, by drawing administrative borders along ethnic lines and granting national self-determination, Vladimir Lenin had planted a “time bomb” at the foundation of the Soviet Union’s statehood and that of Russia itself. This paper explains how Kremlin's quest for unified history is aimed to defuse this ontological time bomb.
Exploiting Chaos: Russia in Libya
September 23, 2020|Thomas Arnold
By slowly increasing its involvement in Libya, Russia has managed to secure the bulk of its tactical and strategic objectives without much interference from the West. This paper looks at Russia's playbook and offers options to counter Russian efforts.
Avangard and Transatlantic Security
September 23, 2020|Spenser Warren
On December 2019, the Russian minister of defense announced that the Russian military had successfully deployed the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV). What impact does this development have on U.S. and NATO security? This paper answers this question.
Rearming Arms Control Should Start with New START Extension
September 23, 2020|Jim Golby
The Trump administration has articulated a bold vision for arms control, but it has chosen the wrong time and approach to achieve its ambitious goals. This paper makes the case for extending New START immediately and without preconditions.
Countering Russian Disinformation
September 23, 2020|Joe Robbins
Over the years, Russia's government agencies and affiliated groups have used a combination of social media savvy and disinformation strategies to further Russian influence. In this paper, the Czech and Estonian responses are explored and offered as solutions to this growing threat.
Constructing Memory Alliances
September 23, 2020|Jade McGlynn
Through media and diplomatic institutions, Russia is using its levers of influence and public diplomacy to create memory alliances with foreign audiences. Serbia, where Russia must tussle for influence with the European Union and the United States, provides a case study of Russian memory alliance construction.
The Best or Worst of Both Worlds?
September 23, 2020|Gil Barndollar
The reformed and revitalized Russian military is increasingly powerful and proficient. However, Russia remains suspended between the large but limited army of its past and the expensive but proficient professional military model. Does this mixed manpower system give Russia the best or the worst of both worlds?
Four Myths about Russian Grand Strategy
September 22, 2020|Robert Person
Russia’s resurgence in the twenty-first century has resulted in a large number of misconceptions about its objectives in international politics. This paper seeks to clear up some of those misconceptions by identifying and dispelling four common myths about Russian grand strategy.
Rank and File Corrupted: Uncertain Attribution and Corruption in Russia’s Military Cyber Units
September 22, 2020|Teyloure Ring
Corruption has riddled the ranks of the Russian military for decades, persisting in operations, maintenance, and personnel. This paper explores what corruption might look like if it infected Russia’s elite military cyber units.
Band of Brothers: The Wagner Group and the Russian State
September 21, 2020|András Rácz
The Russian private military company Wagner Group may appear to be a conventional business company; however, its management and operations are deeply intertwined with the Russian military and intelligence community. This paper explores the connection between the Wagner Group and the Russian state.
Rosgvardiya: Hurtling Towards Confrontation?
September 21, 2020|Colonel Jason P. Gresh
As the Putin era continues into its third decade, the West should closely observe Rosgvardiya’s actions and the authorities it is given not only to understand Russia better but to also avoid a diplomatic misstep. This paper explores the creation and purpose of Russia's National Guard.
Women in the Russian Military
September 18, 2020|Mary Chesnut
In modern day Russia, a fairly low number of women serve in the military despite an expanded force structure approaching 1 million active duty personnel. This paper explores why this is the case.
Podcasts
The Tale of Two Russian Occupations: Georgia and Ukraine – Russian Roulette Episode 115
September 29, 2021|Heather Conley, Mykola Bielieskov, Natia Seskuria
In this episode of Russian Roulette, Heather sits down with Mykola Bielieskov, Ph.D. student at the National Institute for Strategic Studies (NISS), Ukraine, and Natia Seskuria, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
Of Russia’s Politics of Memory – Russian Roulette Episode 106
September 25, 2020|Heather Conley, Hannah Alberts, Jade McGlynn
In this episode of Russian Roulette, Heather sits down with Hannah Alberts, analyst with U.S. European Command based in the United Kingdom, and Jade McGlynn, researcher and lecturer at the University of Oxford.
